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Mexico: A black swan in the making?

Permanent Linkby Jack on Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:28 pm

From FM 3-24/MCWP 3-33.5:

1-33. Phase II, strategic stalemate, begins with overt guerrilla warfare as the correlation of forces approaches equilibrium. In a rural-based insurgency, guerrillas normally operate from a relatively secure base area in insurgent-controlled territory. In an urban-based insurgency, guerrillas operate clandestinely, using a cellular organization. In the political arena, the movement concentrates on undermining the people’s support of the government and further expanding areas of control. Subversive activities can take the form of clandestine radio broadcasts, newspapers, and pamphlets that openly challenge the control and legitimacy of the established authority. As the populace loses faith in the established authority the people may decide to actively resist it. During this phase, a counterstate may begin to emerge to fill gaps in governance that the host-nation (HN) government is unwilling or unable to address.

Let's take a look at Mexico.

What do we know?

    Cantarell is in rapid decline.

    PEMEX, the Mexican national oil company, produces 36% of Mexico's national budget.

    Mexico is experiencing a Phase II insurgency, as described above.
What does this imply?

    1) An important source of oil imports to the U.S. may cease to be a viable source

    2) The historically open southern border of the U.S. may become a source of extensive organized crime, violence, and activity associated with an insurgency

    3) Life in Mexico will become more difficult, implying mass migration northward.

As we consider the near-term future, the implications of a failed state on our southern border may merit reflection.

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