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Climbing a wall of flak by wisconsin_cur on Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:56 am
Bring up the idea that the century will end with 5-6 billion fewer people on the planet in polite company and you will hear a quiet before a storm of personal attack. The average person seems incapable of distinguishing between an evaluation of what you think will happen from what you want to happen. I have a theory about this is a result of catagory mixing which has taken place in our culture over the last century. We have, for so long, enveloped ourself in the notion that if you want something to happen you have to believe it will happen that we automatically assume that if someone believes something will happen they want it to happen. I remember getting the same flak when I openly discussed the possibility of a mass casuality terrorist attack with family in the 1990's and complained of the dangerous state of New Orleans' levees three years before Katrina.

If you want to escape a life of responding with the herd it is important to develop your own worldview, your own perception...

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3 Comments Viewed 55957 times
Whence housing? by Jack on Mon Sep 28, 2009 5:48 pm
One of the developing themes over at tickerforum.org is housing - both foreclosures, and the avoidance of foreclosures by the banks. It seems that if a bank forecloses on a property and sells it, the bank must recognize the loss, representing a major hit against capital. And with too many losses, the bank ceases to be viable and must (by law) be dissolved. So - the banks don't foreclose. The property may be occupied by the former owners (but how can one be an owner with no equity?), or is abandoned and becomes prey for squatters and worse.

The problem, of course, is that the economy may stagnate with high unemployment and reduced business activity - or, worse, peak will hit with a vengeance and force the economy into another slide. In either case, we could easily see an increase in abandoned properties. If gasoline takes another run to $4 per gallon, it seems likely that the suburbs will be notably vulnerable to such developments (pun intended).

This creates a variety of interesting...

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4 Comments Viewed 13422 times
Cutting through expectations by wisconsin_cur on Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:38 pm
If learning about peak oil has taught me anything it is that we must all learn to expect the unexpected. A problem arises, however, as our expectations change; we think we have our bases covered and no longer need to expect to be surprised.

Making plans for the future need to be versatile. I have read some people who use this as an excuse to not prepare, they plan to remain mobile. How, I would like to ask, will you adapt if the future presents a surprise where one needs to stay rooted where they are in order to thrive? Just because we have been disabused of some false expectations does not mean that the future is obliged to meet our new one's.

The future is open. Even if certain constraints make a certain outcome necessary does not mean we know exactly how the path from here to there will progress. Even if we can know the megatrends for the next one hundred years, this is not the same thing as knowing how those larger trends will impact our micro-existence or that of our neighbors...

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0 Comments Viewed 49700 times
Warning signs of the next stage of collapse. by the48thronin on Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:09 am
So those of you who know me, know I am a truck owner driver. My wife and I each own and drive a truck with our own trailer. We are independent, but have an "agent" who chooses "with" us which and books our loads from the people who are trying to book the truck. He gets our signed contracts for each load before we go to pick up the load and negotiates all details of pay insurance requirements etc. He also does the credit checks on customers and decides which will have to pay in advance and which have the credit to pay after delivery instead of before delivery. We do not move households, only industrial, museum, government loads. The customer I am working for now is a years long steady customer who booked the load suddenly this morning when he realized I was empty in the area.

Tonight I am sitting half loaded in a ghost town, a 10 block by 20 block office complex. I am in Irvine California.

Image...

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0 Comments Viewed 3509 times
Physical Fitness by smallpoxgirl on Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:04 pm
At the beginning of this year I was just about to turn 35, and I was almost 200 pounds overweight. In my mid thirties I'm starting to come to terms with the idea that if I don't start taking care of my body, it may not be around to take care of me. I started a combination of diet and exercise around the beginning of February. So far I've lost 85 pounds, and I'm maintaining a pretty steady rate of just over 3 pounds of weight loss per week. I feel great. I'm not hungry. Life is good. The best part is that, unlike prior attempts I've made at weight loss, this really feels more like a lifestyle change rather than a "diet" per se.

I've become a huge fan of Crossfit. Crossfit began as a local thing in Northern California back in the early 90's. Around 2000 they started a website where they post the workout of the day (WOD) and various videos of how to do the different excercises. Since then it's taken off like wild fire and become a grassroots movement with thousands of...

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2 Comments Viewed 10288 times

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